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目前顯示的是 12月, 2014的文章

效率市場假說與市場效率

最近Vanguard HK有兩檔亞洲ETF呈現折價的情況 上星期五收盤最多折價到3.8% 以Vanguard的品牌與能力 不應該出現這樣的折價 很快的今天兩檔ETF都連袂大漲5.1% and 4.7% 折價應該有所收斂 看來市場是有效率的 但是香港與大陸的AH股卻存在著很大的premium http://www.hket.com/store/general/finance/stock-info/D00001.html 這個在滬港通之前, 則是倒過來的 如果市場有效率 那麼這些premium應該很快就會消逝才對 怎麼會這樣呢? 猜測是 1. A股相對於H股, 數量比較小, 相對容易炒作. 最近大陸成交量頻創新高, 所以股價就不斷的往上拉升 2. A股H股的資金流動是有限制的, 所以需要花時間才能夠消除gap 總和上述兩點, 因為A股還是不斷的創高, 然後H股又比較肥胖, 加上資金流動又有所限制, 所以追得很辛苦, 導致現在premium一直無法收斂. 依照這樣的思路, 當A股無法持續創新高時, H股才有辦法追到相同的股價.

An interesting RAQ

How can I avoid turning into a pointy-haired boss? The pointy-haired boss is a manager who doesn't program. So the surest way to avoid becoming him is to stay a programmer. What tempts programmers to become managers are companies with old-fashioned corporate structure, where the only way to advance in salary and prestige is to go into management. So if you want to avoid becoming a PHB, avoid such companies, and work for (or  start ) startups. I never had to manage anyone in our startup, even though I was the president. The other hackers were my peers, and would have given me the raspberry if I'd tried to "manage" them. We operated by consensus. And the rest of the company reported to our experienced COO, who was also more of a peer. Why be a manager when you could be a founder or early employee at a startup? http://www.paulgraham.com/raq.html