以前常把ROE/PB ratio來比較不同公司
因此如果ROE/PB ratio相同
就會覺得兩家公司有相同價值
會偏向買PR ratio低的
今天實際用case去跑
才發現錯得可以
| Roe 10% | PB 1 | payout ratio 50% | |||
| market value | book value | profit | dividend | cash flow | |
| 00/1/1 | 100 | 100 | -100 | ||
| 01/1/1 | 105 | 105 | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| 02/1/1 | 110.25 | 110.25 | 10.5 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| 03/1/1 | 115.7625 | 115.7625 | 11.025 | 5.5125 | 5.5125 |
| 04/1/1 | 121.550625 | 121.550625 | 11.57625 | 5.788125 | 5.788125 |
| 05/1/1 | 127.62815625 | 127.62815625 | 12.1550625 | 6.07753125 | 6.07753125 |
| 06/1/1 | 134.0095640625 | 134.0095640625 | 12.762815625 | 6.3814078125 | 6.3814078125 |
| 07/1/1 | 140.7100422656 | 140.7100422656 | 13.4009564063 | 6.7004782031 | 6.7004782031 |
| 08/1/1 | 147.7455443789 | 147.7455443789 | 14.0710042266 | 7.0355021133 | 7.0355021133 |
| 09/1/1 | 155.1328215979 | 155.1328215979 | 14.7745544379 | 7.3872772189 | 7.3872772189 |
| 10/1/1 | 162.8894626777 | 162.8894626777 | 15.5132821598 | 7.7566410799 | 170.6461037576 |
| total dividend | 62.8894626777 | ||||
| irr | 9.99% |
| market value | book value | profit | dividend | cash flow | |
| 2000/1/1 | 200 | 100 | -200 | ||
| 2001/1/1 | 220 | 110 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 2002/1/1 | 242 | 121 | 22 | 11 | 22 |
| 2003/1/1 | 266.2 | 133.1 | 24.2 | 12.1 | 24.2 |
| 2004/1/1 | 292.82 | 146.41 | 26.62 | 13.31 | 26.62 |
| 2005/1/1 | 322.102 | 161.051 | 29.282 | 14.641 | 29.282 |
| 2006/1/1 | 354.312 | 177.156 | 32.2102 | 16.1051 | 32.2102 |
| 2007/1/1 | 389.743 | 194.872 | 35.4312 | 17.71561 | 35.43122 |
| 2008/1/1 | 428.718 | 214.359 | 38.9743 | 19.487171 | 38.974342 |
| 2009/1/1 | 471.59 | 235.795 | 42.8718 | 21.435888 | 42.8717762 |
| 2010/1/1 | 518.748 | 259.374 | 47.159 | 23.579477 | 565.907446 |
| total dividend | 159.37425 | ||||
| IRR | 19.98% |
如果假設前提不變, 結論是買高ROE的公司才正確, 而不是PB ratio低的
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