Introduction
從Value and opportunity blog知道Vostok New Ventures這個上市股票, 他專門投資在startup上https://valueandopportunity.com/2018/11/28/how-to-invest-into-venture-capital-part-2-augmentum-vostok-others/
其他blog的討論可以參考
https://www.valuedach.de/en/2018/07/24/vostok-new-ventures-investors-day-2018/
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Vostok_New_Ventures_Ltd/2721240651 (這個網站超多分享, 而且內容都很紮實, 是這次研究的意外收穫)
最新的report如下
https://www.vostoknewventures.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/vnv_3q18_web_eng.pdf
公司前五大投資項目如下
1. Avito(61.1%)
2. BlaBlaCar(11.7%)
3. Gett(5.5%)
4. PropertyFinder(3.6%)
5. babylon(2.2%)
NAV依據3Q report是 SEK 95.57 (公司依據model計算出投資公司價值)
目前價格是SEK 65
discount rate是68%
＿
前十大股東持有65%, 相對穩定
Valuation
為何NAV and market price會有這麼大的gap?猜測是"投資公司營運狀況不佳, 導致估值下滑, 但並沒有反應在公司所估算的NAV中, 而市場把這些訊息price in"
下面這篇文章就提到BlaBlaCar and Gett的情況
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-15/investor-cuts-valuation-of-europe-s-1-billion-dollar-startups
但因為這些公司都是private company, 外人難以知道真實的營運狀況(eg: postive cash flow?), 所以只能夠從各種消息來評估.
因此評量Vostok, 最主要就是評估Avito, 其他的公司都是附帶上來的
Avito的評估, 可以參考之前提到的VIC文章
還有下面這個Vostok presentation slides
http://www.sohnconference.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Adelman_Presentation_2018.pdf
這家公司在Russia的市佔率很高, 預期成長空間也很大, 而且已經是獲利狀態, 持續都有再發放股利. 2018收到17.7 m USD, 以現價65 SEK and USD/SEK=9.0322計算, 約是2.9%的股利率.
持有這樣的公司, 可以享受其高速成長, 或者待價而沽, 看看大股東Naspers是否會出高價收購, 直接變現
https://www.marketscreener.com/NASPERS-LIMITED-1413396/news/AVITO-AND-EMAG-Naspers-considers-minorities-buyout-26230416/
但假設公司賣出Avito之後, 要怎麼deploy資金就變成一個大問題就是.....
Risks
1. 多年好景氣已經走到盡頭, 如果投資的新創無法獲利或者出場, 勢必會對股價造成影響2. 不配發股息, 市場可能因為情緒關係, 導致價格長期低迷. 不過公司也會在適當時機回購, 所以應該不至於偏離太遠
3. insiders並未建立大量持股, CEO是持股最多的, 但是也只有0.2%, interest是否align?
延伸好處
VC有他的network, 可以投資到一般人無法接觸到的項目以2018來看, Vostok仍然持續不斷的投資新創公司
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/vostok-nafta-investment/investments/investments_list#section-investments
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2018/12/20
58.com數據
2017 net profit = 1285068
2017 depreciation + amortization = 435627 RMB
2017 Interest = 51404
2017 Tax = 146689
EBITDA = 1918788
EBITDA/net profit = 1.493
Avito 4/1~9/30 EBITDA =6760m RUB
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/30/1660015/0/en/Vostok-New-Ventures-Ltd-Avito-AB-Trading-Statement-for-the-six-months-period-April-1-2018-September-30-2018.html
年化則是13520m RUB = 1822.5m SEK
估計的net profit則是1822.5/1.493 = 1220.7m SEK
VNV SDB market cap = 59.8 * 84562357 = 5056m SEK
- 本益比15倍, 則持有Avito的價值為2435.3m, 佔總市值48%
- 本益比20倍, 則持有Avito的價值為3247m, 佔總市值64%
- 本益比25倍, 則持有Avito的價值為4058.8m, 佔總市值80%
若按照15%增長5年, 2023的net profit為2455, 本益比15倍, 就約略等於目前的市值
以上單純用一些假設數據來蓋抓Avito與VNV SDB市值間的關係
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2018/2/18
https://www.vostoknewventures.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/vnv_4q18_web_eng.pdf
12月才說賣掉Avito, 沒想到真的賣掉了!!!
After the end of the period, on January 25, 2019, Vostok New Ventures announced it had sold all its shares in Avito for a total consideration of USD 540 mln, which is the same valuation as per December 31, 2018.
Avito has been a large company for some time now and the founders did partly exit some three years ago. We opted to stay with our full shareholding which gave us another 61% return. Now that the founders have decided to fully exit their remaining shares it is time for us to move on as well.
目前沒啥想法, 後續想清楚再說
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2018/2/18
https://www.vostoknewventures.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/vnv_4q18_web_eng.pdf
12月才說賣掉Avito, 沒想到真的賣掉了!!!
After the end of the period, on January 25, 2019, Vostok New Ventures announced it had sold all its shares in Avito for a total consideration of USD 540 mln, which is the same valuation as per December 31, 2018.
Avito has been a large company for some time now and the founders did partly exit some three years ago. We opted to stay with our full shareholding which gave us another 61% return. Now that the founders have decided to fully exit their remaining shares it is time for us to move on as well.
目前沒啥想法, 後續想清楚再說
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