Take the series "I" as an example (https://www.preferredstockchannel.com/symbol/clny.pri/)
- original coupon: 7.15%
- redeemable: yes
- next callable date: 2022/6/5
- cumulative: yes
- liquidation price: 25 (link)
Some information from Q1 2020 earning call
- 80% of our debt stack is non-recourse. Net debt is 9.4 billion.
- As of May 5th, we have $1 billion of cash on the balance sheet at the corporate level.
- Core FFO was negative $20 million or $0.04 per share. Excluding net losses of $22 million, primarily attributable to net investment losses and other equity and debt segment, core FFO was $2 million
- no later than June 30th to make a decision as to the declaration of dividends payable to its preferred stockholders for the second quarter 2020
- preferred dividend will be accrued on balance sheet
- there are covenants within the preferred that say that if we don't make that preferred dividend to bring it back to current within six quarters, then there's consequences related to that
Current price is around 13.5.
Let's assume that after 2 years, the series I will be called at 25.
In this scenario, the reward will be (25 + 0.447*8*0.7(withholding tax))/13.5 = 2.03
If that didn't happen which means the company bankrupt, the price will be zero.
In this simplified example, the market think that the probability that the company will bankrupt is around 50%.
If this is too high in your opinions, then.....it might be a good investment idea at this price.
Assume the chance that the company will bankrupt is 30%, the amount to be invested is 41% estimated by Kelly formula.
If bankrupt probability is 40%, the percentage is around 21%.
If bankrupt probability is 45%, the percentage is around 11%.
If the fail probability is higher than 50%, it would be better to do nothing.
The next check point is the date that preferred share dividend is announced. If the dividend is cut, the share price would plummet again. If the dividend is kept, the share price will rebound strongly. But it is hard to tell what will happen now.
If the fail probability is higher than 50%, it would be better to do nothing.
The next check point is the date that preferred share dividend is announced. If the dividend is cut, the share price would plummet again. If the dividend is kept, the share price will rebound strongly. But it is hard to tell what will happen now.
2020/7/7 check point: win rate > 64%
-----------------------------------------------
2020/7/7
Other candidates
- BPYUP
- current price: 16
- original coupon: 6.375%
- redeemable: yes
- next callable date: any day after 2019
- cumulative: yes
- liquidation price: 25
check point: win rate > 61%
- HT.PR.E
- current price: 11.2
- original coupon: 6.5%
- redeemable: yes
- next callable date: 11/07/2021
- cumulative: yes
- liquidation price: 25
- dividend suspending
check point: win rate >44%
-----------------------------------------------
2020/7/9
從網站資料看來
CLNY and HT的preferred share都有insider買進紀錄, 有interest alignment
CLNY: http://insidercow.com/forms/20200220/0000899243-20-009197.xml
HT: http://insidercow.com/forms/2020039/0001063344-20-000092.xml
BPYUP沒有insider transaction
僅有在3月多時買入BPYU的紀錄
-----------------------------------------------
2020/7/12
Moody's可以查到BPYU的rating
Altman Z-score
HT: 0.15
BPUY: -0.11
CLNY: -0.21
HT沒找到bond issues
CLNY有兩筆
其中一筆01/15/2021到期, last trade price是96, last trade yield is 12.322%, last trade day 7/10/2021
2020/3/25曾經跌到38.62, 但後來又漲回現在的價格
BPYU沒找到bond issues
-----------------------------------------------
2020/11/13
Insider buying records
| P | 2020-10-29 | 2020-11-02 16:34:02.0 | HERSHA HOSPITALITY TRUST | HT | Shah Neil H | COO | 5,300 | $4.75 | $25,175.00 | 558,811 | view | |
| P | 2020-10-29 | 2020-11-02 16:34:02.0 | HERSHA HOSPITALITY TRUST | HT | Shah Jay H | CEO | 5,300 | $4.75 | $25,175.00 | 514,415 | view |
留言