跳到主要內容

Some thoughts and links

  1. Burry showed you how to protect yourself from inflation by shorting long term bond(link
    • long
      • Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares
      • ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury
      • ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury
    • short
      • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
  2. U.S. stock return in the future might be low or even negative! (link)
  3. Very interested in Baillie Gifford funds 
    • Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc
      • 22.1 % in unlisted companies
      • 42.8 % for top 10 holdings
    • The Monks Investment Trust PLC
      • 2.1% + 3.7% in unlisted equities.
        • unlisted companies are Epic game, ByteDance, Stripe, SpaceX, Ant
        • The Schiehallion Fund invested in later stage private businesses
      • 20.8% for top 10 holdings
    • Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust plc
      • change to Baillie Gifford on July 2020 
      • "ByteDance" is one of it's top 10 holdings! The only unlisted equity(4.3%) 
      • 43% for top 10 holdings
      • AUM is small.
      • 4% premium
    • Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust plc: capital growth by investing US equities.
      • "Stripe" is one of it's top 10 holdings. (2.7%). Total 16.2% in private assets.
      • 37.7% for top 10 holdings
      • 3.7% premium
    • Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust plc
      • invest globally when market cap < 5B 
      • 7% in unlisted equities
      • 31.2% in top 10
    • The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC:
      • capital growth by investing small/med Japan securities.
      • 30.1% for top 10
      • But why is "softbank" the largest holding?? It belongs to "speculation" strategy.
    • Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon
      • 26% for top 10
  4. VEF CEO interview (link)
    • CEO is skin in the game
    • actively seek concentration in portfolio construction
  5. Lots of deep value stocks in Japan (link)
    • Question is what well be the catalyst to release value?
    • How to get profit from them?
  6. 科技趨勢 from Adobe產品長 (link)

留言

這個網誌中的熱門文章

洪泰瑞老師的選股法則

看過去5-8年ROE是否穩定 配得出現金 (低盈再率+高配息) 產業地位不變 (產品不變+高市占/會變+多角化) 公司要夠大 (常利大於5億元,上市櫃滿2年) 老闆要有誠信 (董監持股至少10%) 僅供參考

交易系統績效評比指標

1.已平倉交易總筆數(Total Number of Closed Trades)長期系統可能出現巨額的帳面獲利,這也應該視為該系統的績效。某些電腦程序會將測試結束後的未平倉淨值分別列出。某些程序則會在測試的最後一天。將該倉位做假設式的了結,並將其視為另一筆已平倉交易。兩種方法都可以接受。 2.獲利(或虧損)交易總筆數(Total Number of Profitale(or Losing)trades)交易必須扣除滑移價差與佣金這些固定成本之後,才可以界定其獲利。持平的交易應該視為虧損。 3.獲利交易百分率(Percentage of Profitable Trades)交易員通常都偏愛較高的獲利交易百分率。然而,就專業交易員而言,其獲利交易百分率經常低於40%。如果你堅持一項較高的獲利交易百分率,則你必須接受較大的虧損與較小的獲利。這已經違背了期貨交易的基本原則:迅速認賠,而讓獲利持續成長。 4.已平倉累積盈虧(Cumulative Closed Profit or Loss)這或許是比較交易系統效率的最普遍指標,但它可能造成誤導。某個系統產生了大量的測試筆數,它雖然可以呈現巨額的總獲利,但它仍可能不是一套很有效率的系統。因為如果已平倉交易的平均獲利很小,則其承擔錯誤的空間便十分有限。 5.未平倉淨值(Open Equity)測試結束時,交易系統可能仍持有未平倉部位。若是如此,則電腦程序必須比較其進場價格與測試系統最後一天的收盤價格,以計算未平倉淨值。如同我們先前所提及的,不可完全將其忽略。 6.已平倉交易平均獲利(Average Profit Per Closed Trade)已平倉交易平均獲利是已平倉累積盈虧,除以已平倉交易總筆數。當評估交易系統之效率,這是Bruce Babcock第一個觀察的數據。 7.最大虧損金額(Maximun Drawdown)最大虧損金額是在整個測試期間內,利用該系統從事交易所可能發生最糟糕的金額虧損。此項金額與最大連續虧損交易之金額可能相同,也可能不同,因為在發生最大虧損的期間內可以出現獲利的交易。最大虧損金額可以根據當天的交易淨值與平倉後的結果來計算。後者代表已平倉交易的可能最糟績效,前者則包括未平倉交易在內,代表交易帳戶的可能最糟情況。 8.最大連續虧損交易筆數(Greatest Number of Consecutive ...

Some links

 GEO bond 2023 ( link ) ( link ) potential downside Max 100%. However,  upside 20% roughly default probability is very low except special events happen maturity in 2 years (2023) large debt expire at 2024 Review of Price and Value share blog ( link ) 黑莓回歸!? ( link ) ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD from V&O ( link ) Review of net-net strategy by Alpha Architect ( link ) “Could the remarkable returns reported in the research have been achieved by an investor in practice?” Essentially, no. suggest investing in firms trading below NCAV is a “bad strategy”? No Easy 10 and TechGiant25 ( link ) ( link ) Okta business report ( link )