Some links

1. Birkenstock IPO (link)
2. Sea Change (link)
• Barbell strategy: 70% short term bond, 30% high profit/risk investment
3. Ossdsign (link)
4. British American Tobacco (link)
• Investment thesis
• around 9% dividend
• 4 year FCF growth rate is around 4%. If the real growth rate is higher than that, then PE re-evaluation due to mis-cognitive-bias. 
• ITC stake
• Risk
• short term: Menthol cigarettes are banned
• long term: global regulation
• Analysis
• Dividends are sustainable from the perspective of FCF
• PM smoke-free revenue around 9.5B in 2022; BAT only 2.4B. It takes 5 years at least to catch up PM's revenue level.
• Regarding the £25bn write-down, my thoughts are
• change the rule to value brand from perpetuity to 30 years which is a non-cash impacts. It only means that past valuation doesn't reflect reality now. However, it did show some negative signs about future cigarette sales in US.
• A big bath accounting for the new CEO, so he could get rid of problems happened before he become the CEO. In the future, he shouldn't have any excuse if the revenue/earning goals are not achieved. Probably, might have some accounting charges within half of year. 
• Setup the mind to NOT rely on combustible products.
• Should focus on real business impacts such as cigarettes banned or revenue/contribution from new products. The question "How could BAT get more market shares in all product segments in US" would be much more important that other issues.
• Additional posts
• https://invariant.substack.com/p/british-american-tobacco-powerful-inflection
• https://librariancapital.substack.com/p/british-american-tobacco-stable-h1
• https://librariancapital.substack.com/p/british-american-tobacco-new-fda?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
• https://abilitato.de/british-american-tobacco-aktie-kurs-sinkt-dividende-bei-ueber-10-prozent-so-gehts-jetzt-weiter/