- BATS by Invariant (link)
- High Uncertainty. The mix of best and worst.
- Appier (link)
- Equity/Bond for the long run part 2 and 3 (link) (link)
- Kamigumi - A Leading Port Infrastructure play in Japan (link)
- 2023 and 2024 average FCF/EV = 11.79%! (2024/5/17
- Pros
- cash/investment rich (maybe too rich which has negative impacts to ROE)
- steadily increasing cash flow even though slow revenue growth
- good to shareholders by dividend and share buyback
- reduce 3~4% share count each year
- plan to increase ROE, asset turnover rate
- Possible risks
- Japan/Asia economy slowdown
- Asia war (Korea/Taiwan)
- International investment results
- Takeuchi (link)
- Haypp Group (link) (link)
- business model: online aggregator for reduced-risk nicotine products
- price/quality/shipping time/mutli flavors
- current FCF/EV = 1.89%
- sales growth rate = 20%
- FCF/EV estimation (share price 87.4)
- estimated 2024 FCF/EV = 3.21%
- estimated 2025 FCF/EV = 4.87%
- best case 2025 FCF/EV = 5.71%
- Strength
- Market shift for reduced risk product
- Low market penetration
- fragmented market => very competitive. Good to the platform.
- bad signs
- 2024/2 CEO sold shares at 63?!
- Risks
- regulation fine
- regulation changes
- brand-owned websites such as zyn.com
- online giants such as AMZN
- indicators
- # of customers
- # of orders
- average order value
- questions
- What are moats?
- to customer
- many SKUs
- compelling prices: 15%~30% lower. Zyn is lower on Haypp than on zyn.com!
- fast delivery
- to supplier
- Customer insights from data analysis
- Cost-saving (~15%) to valuable partnership
- deep regulation knowledge
- SEO experts => low CAC
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| Estimation for Haypp |
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