background info
Joseph Stilwell would like to take control of WHLR started from 2019
Now, the hedge funds managed by Mr. Stilwell become a large share holder (12%) and the board/management team are under his control now. (link)
investment idea
In Mr. Stilwell presentation, preferred stock D is a "death spiral". So "Make the retirement of Series D shares" is a top priority to him. Right now, the company is controlled by him. I think Mr. Stilwell should fulfill the promise seriously.
preferred stock D
current price: 14.1
liquidation price: 25
cumulative dividend: 2.1875*1.5*0.7 ~= 2.3
winning bet = (25+2.3-14.1)/14.1 = 0.93
But WHLR needs to sell assets to buyback preferred stock and it takes some time to do so. Therefore, winning bet should be higher than 0.93. Assume it is 1.
If winning rate is higher then 50% under this assumption, then it becomes a real opportunity.
What would go wrong? Lots of things could.
So, I list items that could make me feel more confident below.....
1. keep AFFO positive
2. keep selling assets, esp. JANAF
3. better lease rate -> imply better selling price
4. Mr. Stilwell purchases more shares
5. refinance debt successfully at the end of 2020
Keep watching this company.
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Other candidates
1. WHLR preferred share B
2. AHT-D
8/7 10000 3.85 common shares
2Q 財報太慘
3. NGL-B
6/5 10000 6.97 common shares
4. XAN-C
8/14, 19, 20 16xxxx,20000, 8000 2.5x common shares
5. FATBP
8/11 21832 3.21 common shares
6. MINDP
7/10 6/25 55000 20000 1.6x common share
7. FTAI-A
7/31 2500 15.11 common shares
to NGL
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analysis from OTCadventure (link)
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2020/9/10
Several purchases happened on 9/3 and 9/4. (item 4)
2020/9/28
| P | 2020-09-23 | 2020-09-24 12:14:08.0 | Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. | WHLR | Khoshaba Daniel | CEO | 5,000 | $2.98 | $14,903.00 | 1,068,950 | view |
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TCO preferred
https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/TAUBMAN_CENTERS_INC/0397051795
price at 10/11 is 21.94
考慮common stock
price: 35.x (10/13)
假設情境
50%打官司, 70%會贏, 30%會輸, 價格跌到20
50%和解, 價格44
總的算來, 預期價格應該是43左右
若跌到31以下, 似乎可以考慮
純粹是短線操作, 長期看來, mall沒有甚麼遠景.
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STOR
https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%E5%A4%A9%E5%A4%A9%E6%94%B6%E7%A7%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%85%E7%A7%9F%E5%85%AC-reits-%E8%AE%80%E6%87%82%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%8B%E5%A4%8F%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8A%E7%9A%84-store-capital/
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RPT preferred
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BHR preferred
Dividend is still delivered to shareholders. However, the price is around 13 which is cheaper than HT and WHLR. As more resorts are going to open, the price should get higher.
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DLNG preferred
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378713-dynagas-preferred-series-attractive-well-covered-distributions
dividend suspended. however, share price is still high. Need more survey.
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