A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step

Burry showed you how to protect yourself from inflation by shorting long term bond( link )  long Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF U.S. stock return in the future might be low or even negative! ( link ) Very interested in Baillie Gifford funds  Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc 22.1 % in unlisted companies 42.8 % for top 10 holdings The Monks Investment Trust PLC 2.1% + 3.7% in unlisted equities. unlisted companies are Epic game, ByteDance, Stripe, SpaceX, Ant The Schiehallion Fund invested in later stage private businesses 20.8% for top 10 holdings Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust plc change to Baillie Gifford on July 2020  "ByteDance" is one of it's top 10 holdings ! The only unlisted equity(4.3%)  43% for top 10 holdings AUM is small. 4% premium Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust plc: capital growth by investing US equities. ...

黑石收購SOHO中國 ( link ) 現價4.48 (2021/6/18) 先決條件為2021/12/31前, 需取得政府批准 . 邀約必要條件為"要約方及其一致行動人士持有本公司 50% 以上投票權" Pros 淨值為7.96, 以5元計算, 折讓為37%, 還算可以 過去5年的股價未超過5, 過去五年內的投資者即便被收購也會是賺錢的, 相對比較不抗拒此價格 PE收購應該不會觸發"反壟斷" 的問題 大股東以聲明不可撤回承諾 Cons 短期內JPM/Morgan stanley/UBS應會持續賣出 6/18持續下跌, 看似市場並不看好. 看看過一個周末後, 市場是否會有不同意見 2020曾經有市場傳聞, 但不知道為何黑石最終放棄.  無法確定何時會批准, 可能拖超過一年以上 成功收購的報酬率為11% 收購失敗 跌到3.8, 則報酬率為-16%, 需要的勝率為60% 跌到2.4, 則報酬率為-47%, 需要的勝率為81% Stripe ( link ) PSTH ( link ) Surprisingly, the evidence suggests a weak relationship between "value/quality" and Ben Grahams' value investment in large cap stocks ( link ) A nice article on William Digby ( link )  ===================================== 2021.7.23 410.HK跌跌不休 限價4.03 以起漲點2.4重估 下跌幅度40% 上漲幅度24% 成功率為62.5%可打平 下表為一個估算, 當股價低於3.7時, win rate為50% ============================== 2021.9.12 收購終止 https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0910/2021091000325_c.pdf lesson learned 會有反壟斷問題的私有化, 即便有很高的報酬, 也不一定能夠compensate. 以後應該要避免參與這樣的私有...

虛擬貨幣介紹 ( link ) Huya ( link ) EV = 2.2 B USD 3 year avg. FCF = 0.2 B USD FCF/EV = 8.9% estimated bottom line growth rate in the near term: 10~15% (guts feeling only) pro Tencent is the major share holder (51% share and 70% voting right) Plan to merge with 斗魚 also cash-rich positive earnings and cash flow Tencent also invested in Huya's direct competitors such as BiliBili and Kuaishou risks Competitive online video streaming business would burn lots of cash Anti-trust 感覺近期政治/商業氛圍不是很好, 破局的可能性不小 1 Huya share to 0.73 斗魚 share. Current prices seem to suggest that the merge proposal will not come true. thoughts if merge is approved, it would be better to buy Douyu using current price 16.x and 8, one could short sell Huya and buy Douyu to lock profit. if merge failed, both stocks would plummet to a record low. Let's wait and see. It should come to an end soon. ( 合併破局 2021.7.11 ) Proof of history. What an interesting idea! ( link ) Long on Lululemon ( link ) China market Mirror other o...

 Risk-parity All-season Permanent Global Market Portfolio (GMP) Arnott Portfolio Marc Faber Ivy, Swensen, El-Erian  Returns Implementation rebalance could gain 0.5% in the long run additional advisory fee would make the best performing asset allocation to the WORST . to place all the assets you can in a tax-deferred account ETFs are often a superior tax vehicle Summary Any asset by itself can experience catastrophic losses.  Diversifying your portfolio by including uncorrelated assets is truly the only free lunch.  60/40 has been a decent benchmark, but due to current valuations, it is unlikely to deliver strong returns going forward.  At a minimum, an investor should consider moving to a global 60/40 portfolio to reflect the global market capitalization, especially right now due to lower valuations in foreign markets.  Consider including real assets such as commodities, real estate, and TIPS in your portfolio.  While covered more extensively in our ot...

Get better results by combining Value and Profitability factors ( link ). Summarize several candidate ETFs in the table below. ETF name expense ratio p/e ratio p/b ratio holdings notes Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF 0.19% 18.3 2.6 583 strong recent performance, strong fundamentals, low prices relative to fundamentals Vanguard U.S. Quality Factor ETF 0.13% 22.4 3.9 778   iShares MSCI Global Multifactor ETF 0.35% 18.01 2.39 469   iShares Edge MSCI World Quality Factor UCITS ETF 0.30% 27.44 5.41 301   iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF 0.30% 23.91 3.36 300   Square發展與財報分析 ( link ) Book-to-market metric becomes a noise signal. The remedy is adjusting book value for investments (i.e., capitalizing expenditures) in intellectual and brand capital, and goodwill.  ( link ) Virtu Financial ( link ) price corr ratio among VTI, VIRT between 2020/2/1 ~ 2020/3/31 is -0.675 between 2020/4/1 ~ now is 0.749 insider trading latest: sell at 28.85 on 2021/5/13 recent ...

 https://valueandopportunity.com/2020/05/12/agfa-gevaert-isin-be0003755692-an-ugly-duck-with-some-golden-eggs-in-its-nest/ Use numbers from 2020 report to estimate value conservatively net debt = 585 m HealthCare IT = 230 * 3 = 690 m Radiology Solution = 575 m Digital Print and Chemical = 260 m Offset Solution = 0 m Total Value = 940 m Per Share value = 5.31 EUR Upside ~ 35% if realize in 2 years, annualized return is 15%. if realize in 3 years, annualized return is 10%. if realize in 4 years, annualized return is 7.8%. if realize in 5 years, annualized return is 6.1%. Downside 1. wrong value estimation 2. take longer to realize valuation catalyst http://activeownership.lu/en/imgs/press/200923%20-%20De%20Tijd%20-%20'Me%20a%20pit%20bull%20That's%20not%20how%20I%20work'%20[translation].pdf misc. info Some holdings of AOC fund     in M in M(EUR)     Agfa-Gevaert 3.89 EUR 652.55 98.27403 15.06% 3 Francotyp-Postalia 3.08 EUR 48.1 4.57431 9.51% 9 Schaltbau ho...